Fix and Flip Profit Calculator: How to Estimate Your Deal Profitability

July 31, 2026

Quick Answer: A fix and flip profit calculator estimates what a deal will actually net: Profit = ARV − purchase price − rehab − holding costs − financing costs − selling costs. In 2026, budget hard money at about 9.5% to 13% plus 1.5 to 3 points, holding costs for every month you own the property, and 6% to 8% of the sale price to sell. If the math does not work on paper, it will not work at the closing table.

Most flips fail not because the house was bad but because the math was: an optimistic resale value, a thin rehab budget, and no line item for the cost of money. A profit calculator forces every cost into the open before you sign anything.

This guide covers the profit formula, how to estimate each input with 2026 numbers, the 70% rule, and a full worked example on a $300,000 ARV flip.

The Fix and Flip Profit Formula

Every flip calculator, from a napkin to a spreadsheet, runs the same equation:

Profit = ARV − purchase price − rehab costs − holding costs − financing costs − selling costs

ARV, the after-repair value, is what the finished property will sell for. Everything after it is a cost, and new investors miss the last three most: the cost of owning, of borrowing, and of selling.

How to Estimate Each Input

The calculator is only as good as the numbers you feed it.

After-Repair Value (ARV)

ARV comes from comparable sales, not from listing prices or hope. Pull three to five recently sold properties nearby that match your finished product in size, bed and bath count, and condition.

Use sold prices from the last 3 to 6 months, not active listings.
Adjust for square footage, lot, and finish level differences.
When comps disagree, lean toward the conservative end of the range.

Rehab Budget with Contingency

Walk the property with a contractor and build a line-item scope: roof, mechanicals, kitchen, baths, flooring, paint. Then add a 10% to 15% contingency, because opening walls reveals surprises and 2026 material and labor pricing still moves.

Holding Costs

Holding costs are everything you pay just to own the property while you work: property taxes, insurance, utilities, and HOA dues. Estimate the monthly total, then multiply by a realistic timeline. Most flips run 6 to 12 months, and a 9-month assumption is a sensible 2026 baseline.

Financing Costs on a Hard Money Loan

Most flippers use hard money, so the cost of capital is a real line item. In 2026, fix and flip hard money typically prices at 9.5% to 13% interest plus 1.5 to 3 origination points. Interest accrues every month: a 9-month hold on a $190,000 loan at 11% costs roughly $15,700 before points.

Selling Costs

Selling is not free. Budget a 5% to 6% agent commission plus about 1% to 2% for seller-side closing costs and transfer taxes, so plan on 6% to 8% of the sale price in total.

The 70% Rule: A 60-Second First Screen

Many investors screen deals with the 70% rule: pay no more than 70% of ARV minus rehab costs.

Maximum offer = (ARV × 0.70) − rehab budget

On a $300,000 ARV property needing $40,000 of work, the ceiling is $210,000 − $40,000 = $170,000. The 30% margin is not all profit; it is where holding, financing, and selling costs get paid from. Use the rule to reject deals fast, then run the full formula on anything that passes.

How to Run the Numbers Before You Offer

Set ARV from sold comps, using the conservative number.
Build the rehab scope with a contractor, plus 10% to 15% contingency.
Multiply monthly holding and financing costs by a 9-month timeline.
Subtract 6% to 8% selling costs and solve for your maximum price.

Worked Example: A $300,000 ARV Flip in 2026

Here is the full calculator on a single-family flip bought at the 70% rule ceiling with hard money.

Line Item	Amount	Notes
After-repair value (ARV)	$300,000	Supported by three sold comps within a half mile
Purchase price	$170,000	At the 70% rule maximum offer
Rehab budget	$40,000	Line-item scope including a 12% contingency
Holding costs	$6,300	Taxes, insurance, utilities at $700/month × 9 months
Financing costs	$19,475	$190,000 hard money loan: 11% interest for 9 months plus 2 points
Selling costs	$21,000	5.5% commission plus about 1.5% seller closing costs
Estimated net profit	$43,225	ARV minus all five cost buckets

The margin between purchase and resale is $130,000, yet nearly $87,000 of it is consumed by costs before profit appears. That is why flips that look obvious on the spread so often disappoint at closing.

Pro tip: Run the calculator a second time with your worst believable inputs: ARV at the low comp, the full contingency spent, and a 12-month hold. If the deal still clears your minimum profit, you have a real cushion instead of a hopeful one.

ROI and Annualized Return

Net profit alone is not enough; compare it to the cash you actually put in. In the example above, the investor’s cash — down payment, points, interest, and holding costs — totals roughly $45,800, so a $43,225 profit is about a 94% cash-on-cash return.

Then annualize it. A 94% return earned in 9 months is about 126% on an annual basis, which is why speed matters: the same profit over 14 months is a far weaker use of capital. Most flippers target a 15% to 20% return on total project cost; under 10% is too thin to survive a surprise.

Sensitivity: What a 5% ARV Miss Costs You

ARV is the input most likely to be wrong, and small misses hit hard. If the example property sells for $285,000 instead of $300,000, the top line drops $15,000 while almost every cost stays fixed. Net profit falls from about $43,000 to roughly $29,000: nearly a third of the profit gone from a 5% pricing error.

A 10% miss cuts the profit roughly in half, and paired with a three-month delay it can push a thin deal to breakeven. Conservative comps and a real contingency are the margin that keeps a flip profitable when something goes sideways.

Pro tip: Time is a cost input, not just a schedule. In the worked example, each extra month of holding runs about $2,400 in interest and carrying costs — price that into every mid-project delay decision.

Common Mistakes

Using list prices as comps. ARV must come from sold properties; active listings are asking, not evidence.
Skipping the contingency. A rehab budget with no 10% to 15% buffer is a best-case guess, not a budget.
Ignoring the cost of money. Points plus 9 months of double-digit interest is often the second-largest expense in the deal.
Forgetting selling costs. Commission and closing costs take 6% to 8% of ARV off the top of every exit.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the formula for fix and flip profit?

Profit = ARV − purchase price − rehab costs − holding costs − financing costs − selling costs. It only works when every bucket is filled in honestly, especially the financing and selling costs beginners skip.

What is a good profit margin on a flip?

Many investors target a net profit of at least 15% to 20% of total project cost, or a fixed minimum such as $25,000 to $30,000. Margins under 10% leave little room for an ARV miss or a timeline overrun.

How accurate is the 70% rule?

It is a screen, not an underwrite. It filters deals quickly in mid-priced markets, but in very high-cost or very cheap markets it can mislead, so follow it with the full calculation.

How much does hard money financing add to a flip?

In 2026, expect roughly 9.5% to 13% interest plus 1.5 to 3 points. On a $190,000 loan held 9 months, that is about $19,000 to $24,000, often the largest cost after the rehab itself.

What holding costs should I include?

Property taxes, insurance, utilities, and HOA dues for every month you own the property. Estimate the monthly total and multiply by a realistic 6 to 12 month timeline.

How do I estimate ARV without an appraiser?

Pull three to five sold comps from the last 3 to 6 months, matched to your finished size, layout, and condition. Use the conservative end of the range and sanity-check it with a local agent who knows the block.

The Bottom Line

A fix and flip profit calculator is cheap insurance: five cost buckets, honestly estimated, tell you before you offer whether a deal earns real money. Set ARV from sold comps, pad the rehab, count every month of holding and interest, and never forget the 6% to 8% it costs to sell.

Investors ready to run the numbers on a specific deal can compare lenders through HardMoneyHome.com, or call 1-888-473-6410.